Wow! This has been a crazy free agency period headlined by two huge trades of superstar WR1s. In this entry, I will be listing the biggest free agency moves, and my thoughts on how these moves impact my fantasy football strategy.
Antonio Brown – traded to Oakland Raiders
Overview
Tony Toe Tap is tapping his feet for another team now! If I’m being honest with myself, I did not expect Antonio Brown to be traded. In the back of my mind, I thought that Antonio Brown would realize that he is playing with a future Hall of Fame Quarterback, so it would be silly if he left for another team, especially to a team with an inferior quarterback. However, Antonio Brown definitely proved me wrong by convincing the Steelers to trade him to the Black Hole.
Fantasy Value
So how does this trade affect Brown’s fantasy value? His value undoubtedly diminshes from having a future Hall of Famer throwing him the ball to a …cry baby? (look up Derek Carr crying on Google) But the question is how much? Well, Brown is still a stud in terms of talent. Just look at his stats! 6 past consecutive seasons of 100+ rec and 1,250 yds! That’s insane, and he has shown no signs of decline even though he is 30 years old. Despite Carr’s mediocre past two seasons, I feel like Derek Carr is more than capable to support Brown’s stats. If you look at the 2016 season, Carr supported Amari Copper and Michael Crabtree quite well. Cooper had 132 targets, 83 rec, 1153 yds, and 5 tds. Crabtree had 145 targets, 89 rec, 1003 yds, and 8 tds. Both of those players were borderline low end WR1/high end WR2 numbers! Brown is better receiver than both of them, so he should have better stats than that.
Also, who else does Carr have to throw the ball to? An old grandpa in Jordy Nelson? Jared Cook? The Raiders did just sign Tyrell Williams, but is he going to cut into Brown’s stats? I don’t think so. The only question marks are whether Brown can fit well in the system and the locker room. John Gruden is the exact opposite of Mike Tomlin, who is known as a player’s coach. So how will Brown react to a hard nosed, old school football coach? It’s hard to tell now, and it is a risk that fantasy owners have to take when drafting Brown.
Draft Value
I don’t see Brown having a drastic dip in production that many people already assume that he will have, but I don’t see him replicating his stats from playing for the Steelers. I predict him having at least 90-95 rec, around 1,250 yrs, and 9 tds, with high upside for more. I would draft Brown in the 2nd round in a 10 team league. If he falls to the 3rd round, I would be jumping out of my chair to pick him.
Update: 3/15/19
A bit of a small update here. Jordy Nelson has been released after playing only one season with the Raiders! This move doesn’t impact Brown too much since I didn’t really factor Jordy in catching many passes anyway. If anything, Brown might get around 5 more receptions this season.
Guns Up Fantasy 