Guns Up Fantasy

Overview

Nick Foles has gotten a nice fat contract of four years for $88 million dollars. This deal puts Foles as the 11th highest paid quarterback in the league, which I think is reasonable. $22 million is quite a bit of money, but that’s what you have to pay if you want a decent quarterback that isn’t a rookie these days. I’m glad that the Eagles let Foles walk because I feel that Foles deserves to have another chance to start for a different team. In terms of the debate between Foles and Wentz, I would still go with Wentz if I was the GM of the Eagles. Wentz is still really young, and he is already playing at an elite level. Just two seasons, Wentz was a MVP front-runner before he got injured! There are injury concerns with Wentz since he has missed some time the past two seasons, but I don’t think that those reasons are good enough excuses to bail on Wentz already. Look at Matthew Stafford! It felt like he was injured every year for his first 5 seasons, but he has been dependable afterwards.

Fantasy Value

I am not a huge believer in Nick Foles with the Jaguars. I truly think that the Jags identity is ground and pound through Leonard Fournette, so there will limited pass attempts of Foles. Also, I don’t think Foles has a great receiving cast with the Jags. The combination of Dede Westbrook, Marqise Lee, and Keelan Cole just doesn’t scare defenses. If you look at Foles previous years as a starter, his stats are mediocre. Besides one amazing game when he had 7 touchdowns in one game with the Eagles, he is nothing to write home about.

Article will be updating later…

Overview

Le’veon Bell has finally decided on the Jets! Personally, I would have really liked it if he signed with the Colts since it would make Andrew Luck (my man crush) a Super Bowl contender in my opinion. However, Bell has followed his checkbook and is now the second highest paid running back after Todd Gurley. Interestingly, Bell will make less money per year than last year’s franchise tag and make less money compared to previous offers by the Steelers.

Fantasy Value

I think Bell still has a few solid seasons left in him since he is still 27 years old and took last year off. I really like that Adam Gase is the Jets’ new head coach since he is a good OC. Gase was the OC for the Denver Broncos in 2013 when Peyton Manning had his record breaking year, so Gase should be able to maximize Bell’s skills.

There are a few concerns for me with Bell though. He is in a new system with the Jets, so there is some uncertainty there. Also, the Jets still have Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell on the roster, so it is still unknown about how the carries will be divided. I doubt that Bell will have the same workload in New York that he had in Pittsburgh since the Jets will try to maintain Bell for his four year contract, which hurts his fantasy value. However, it would be foolhardy on Gase’s part if he overplayed Crowell and Powell. Can you imagine if you’re a Jets fan and you see that Crowell is starting over Bell? My goodness! In addition, it is hard to predict if Bell will have the same receiving role that he had with the Steelers. I do like that Bell has a young quarterback in Sam Darnold, so Bell can be Darnold’s safety net. It’s hard to forecast Bell due to these reasons. If I had to bring my crystal ball out, I predict Bell will have around 230 carries, 1035 rushing yds, 10 rushing tds, 60 rec, 550 receiving yds, and 2 receiving tds. In a way, I kind of envision Bell’s production similar to Devonta Freeman’s production in previous seasons.

Draft Value

Bell is very hard for me to rank due to the amount of uncertainty I have about him. I view him as more of a second round guy for this reason. However, if Gase provides more clarity about Bell’s role as the season gets closer, I will feel more comfortable with moving Bell’s draft position.

Update: 3/15/19

Isaiah Crowell has been released after one season with the Jets! This move definitely improves Bell’s fantasy value since I saw Isaiah Crowell as the main threat to steal carries from Bell. Now Bilial Powell is the only other running back on the Jet’s roster, and I don’t think that anyone believes that Powell will be a big threat to steal touches from Bell. Now my only concern is injury since Bell has only one season of playing all 16 games in a season. Now I predict Bell getting at least 250 carries, 1125 rushing yds, 12 rushing tds, 65 rec, 600 receiving yds, and 2 receiving tds. I will now confidently draft Bell in the first round!

Overview

Wow! This trade surprised me even more than the Antonio Brown trade! OBJ is the face of the Giants franchise, and they just traded him out of a blue for only middling first and second round picks in this draft and Jabrill Peppers, a player who has so far underachieved in the NFL. To put this trade in perspective, the Dallas Cowboys traded Herschel Walker to the Minnesota Vikings for three first round picks, three second round picks, a third round, a sixth round pick, and a handful of players in 1989, which set up a Dallas Cowboys dynasty in the 1990s. I feel like the OBJ is as good if not better than Herschel Walker, so the Giants could have and should have gotten a lot more than what they did. As a Cowboys fan, I’m not complaining if the Giants suck, so hooray for them!

Fantasy Value

I feel like I may be in the minority here, but I think OBJ’s fantasy value has actually increased. In the past, I believe that OBJ was let down by Eli Manning, who could not unlock OBJ’s full potential. In addition, there have been a lot of mouths to feed in New York with Evan Engram, Sterling Shepard, and now Saquan Barkley. Nonetheless, OBJ still performed at a superstar level. In Cleveland now, there are still many mouths to feed with Jarvis Landry, David Njoku, and Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt. However, Baker Mayfield can actually throw the ball, so he can at least better utilize OBJ than Eli. In my view, OBJ moves to a new team that still has many mouths to feed, but he now has a better quarterback, who can maximize OBJ’s potential. Also, OBJ is only 26 years old, so you can argue that he still hasn’t reached his peak yet! I can easily see OBJ hitting 95-100 rec, 1450 yds, and 10+ tds if he stays healthy.

There is still some uncertainty with OBJ since he is with a new team, so he has to learn a new system and build rapport with Baker Mayfield. However, OBJ is a superstar who can change a game, and it would be remiss for Freddie Kitchens to not make OBJ the focal point of his offense. Also, there are some injury concerns now with OBJ since he has missed four games in 2018 and missed almost all of the 2017 season.

Draft Value

I really like OBJ this year! I feel good about drafting him in the late first round to early second round. If he falls past the second round, grab him before someone else does!

Wow! This has been a crazy free agency period headlined by two huge trades of superstar WR1s. In this entry, I will be listing the biggest free agency moves, and my thoughts on how these moves impact my fantasy football strategy.

Antonio Brown – traded to Oakland Raiders

Overview

Tony Toe Tap is tapping his feet for another team now! If I’m being honest with myself, I did not expect Antonio Brown to be traded. In the back of my mind, I thought that Antonio Brown would realize that he is playing with a future Hall of Fame Quarterback, so it would be silly if he left for another team, especially to a team with an inferior quarterback. However, Antonio Brown definitely proved me wrong by convincing the Steelers to trade him to the Black Hole.

Fantasy Value

So how does this trade affect Brown’s fantasy value? His value undoubtedly diminshes from having a future Hall of Famer throwing him the ball to a …cry baby? (look up Derek Carr crying on Google) But the question is how much? Well, Brown is still a stud in terms of talent. Just look at his stats! 6 past consecutive seasons of 100+ rec and 1,250 yds! That’s insane, and he has shown no signs of decline even though he is 30 years old. Despite Carr’s mediocre past two seasons, I feel like Derek Carr is more than capable to support Brown’s stats. If you look at the 2016 season, Carr supported Amari Copper and Michael Crabtree quite well. Cooper had 132 targets, 83 rec, 1153 yds, and 5 tds. Crabtree had 145 targets, 89 rec, 1003 yds, and 8 tds. Both of those players were borderline low end WR1/high end WR2 numbers! Brown is better receiver than both of them, so he should have better stats than that.

Also, who else does Carr have to throw the ball to? An old grandpa in Jordy Nelson? Jared Cook? The Raiders did just sign Tyrell Williams, but is he going to cut into Brown’s stats? I don’t think so. The only question marks are whether Brown can fit well in the system and the locker room. John Gruden is the exact opposite of Mike Tomlin, who is known as a player’s coach. So how will Brown react to a hard nosed, old school football coach? It’s hard to tell now, and it is a risk that fantasy owners have to take when drafting Brown.

Draft Value

I don’t see Brown having a drastic dip in production that many people already assume that he will have, but I don’t see him replicating his stats from playing for the Steelers. I predict him having at least 90-95 rec, around 1,250 yrs, and 9 tds, with high upside for more. I would draft Brown in the 2nd round in a 10 team league. If he falls to the 3rd round, I would be jumping out of my chair to pick him.

Update: 3/15/19

A bit of a small update here. Jordy Nelson has been released after playing only one season with the Raiders! This move doesn’t impact Brown too much since I didn’t really factor Jordy in catching many passes anyway. If anything, Brown might get around 5 more receptions this season.

Hello everyone! On behalf of today marking the start of the NFL New Year when free agents can officially sign new deals with their teams, I am starting my first blog about a subject that is near and dear to my heart, fantasy football! I started playing fantasy football in 2010, and I have loved and played it every year ever since! Every year in every league, I have made the fantasy playoffs, so I like to think that I know enough about fantasy football to make a blog about it. I have won a a good amount of fantasy leagues, so I hope I bring enough knowledge to new and experienced fantasy players to help them improve their fantasy football skills. In this blog, I plan on writing my thoughts on big events that occur in the NFL that affect fantasy football. Thanks for reading!